The VUCA is In
“We live in a rainbow of chaos.”
The past sometimes offers a feeble guide for the future. That’s because today’s world is changing faster and more profoundly than at any time in human history. Even the most capable leaders find themselves falling behind, struggling to make sense of the world, and unsure how to manage themselves and provide an inspiring example to others.
Today’s world is increasingly so volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous that these ideas have been rolled up into a catchy acronym: VUCA. It’s a concept with its roots in military planning. As the Cold War ended, the Pentagon realized that America’s biggest military threats had become both asymmetrical and unpredictable. Two men in a speedboat packed with explosives could severely damage a $2 billion naval vessel as gravely as a high-tech Soviet torpedo, and the sailors might never see it coming.
Even if the stakes in your career aren’t quite that high, it pays to appreciate the contours of VUCA in our world:
Volatility. Things are changing quicker than ever before, and the rate of change is increasing geometrically. For example, it took 75 years for the telephone to reach 50 million users. Radio and television took 38 and 17 years respectively to reach 50 million. “Angry Birds Space” hit 50 million users in 35 days.
Uncertainty: Surprise is the “new normal,” even in patterns that appear to be stable. Think of how often we are confronted by “black swan events” (e.g., droughts, tsunamis, earthquakes, market crashes, etc.). Despite our technology and sophistication, we are increasingly unable to anticipate unthinkable high-profile occurrences that can have devastating effects on societies and people.
Complexity: Our institutions and systems have grown dramatically in size, breadth, and ambition, becoming so complex and multidimensional that nobody can reliably predict how they will function or where they will break down. This complexity, and the multiplicity of forces with overlapping influences, means it is less possible than ever to neatly distinguish causes and effects.
Ambiguity: Because reality is hazy and uncertain, it is increasingly likely that we will misread our environment, become anxious about our lack of definitive information, and/or make false meaning of the data we think we have. Such haziness can paralyze individuals and organizations, making them reluctant or unable to move, change, or grow.
In short, VUCA means that nothing is static; everything is moving and unstable. You can’t step into the same river twice…and when you do wade in, the solid ground below your feet may turn out to be shifting sand.
Our social systems are no less confounding. As individuals and groups, we all experience ambivalence (doubt, uncertainty, second thoughts, and regret), fluctuation (continual dynamism and change), and fragmentation (an awareness of multiple realities), which can feel bewildering and paralyzing. The task of the leader is to acknowledge and accept this set of characteristics, and adapt to its contours.
The change agent must be patient…and then also quick. In an environment in constant flux and fragmentation, no one can wait for a complete understanding of a situation before moving.
We no longer have the luxury of creating a plan, reaping the results, and analyzing the impacts in a predictable linear fashion. Every change process must be developed in motion, with multiple opportunities for revision and reconsideration, incorporating new perspectives, data, learnings, and then more new interventions. My Defense Department clients call this “building the aircraft while flying in midair.”
When confronted with VUCA, some people just try to paddle faster and faster. Elon Musk told the New York Times in 2018 that he was working 120-hour weeks to keep his teetering Tesla Motors afloat, and that he has days-long stretches when he never leaves the factory. But that kind of super-human agitation is not sustainable. Nobody can continue to accelerate and expand their responsibilities without end. Eventually, even the most powerful and energetic people succumb to the mental and physical toll, which leads to irritability, burnout, and diminished effectiveness.
Larry Cuban defines dilemmas as “messy, complicated, and conflict-filled situations that require undesirable choices between highly prized values that cannot be simultaneously or fully solved.” Which is why adapting to VUCA presents a dilemma for every leader; its dynamics can’t be changed, only managed.
Despite the challenges, this is no time to hide under the covers. In a VUCA world, wise leadership is still possible:
To address volatility, set a vision of where you are going, and how others might follow. In a world of constant changes, having a sense of direction helps everyone find their purpose.
To address uncertainty (and despite the pressure to leap into action), pause, look, and listen. Make a conscious effort to seek outside perspectives and learn from others.
To address complexity, refocus on what you know, and appreciate that some topics are going to be difficult or impossible to fully understand.
To address ambiguity, accept that the view ahead will never be clear. Then be ready to marshal your energy to be fast, focused, and flexible to change as the situation warrants.
I’ve seen numerous leaders find solace in realizing a version of “It’s not just me!” As you accept the breadth and scope of VUCA in your life, you may find renewed energy for leadership in an undeniably chaotic and challenging environment.
Your leadership skills may have served you very well in your pre-VUCA climb to the current perch on your professional ladder. But while you were moving up, the world around you has shifted out of your grasp. This is the moment to expand your skills, to keep from being left empty handed.
